Analysts seem to mostly share my view of yesterday’s Apple event. While there was acknowledgement that the new offerings would help to grow the company’s Services business, and AAPL did open just under 1% up on yesterday’s close, the general response was extremely muted.
Even the bank partnering with the company for the Apple Card said that the impact on the company’s future was likely to be small …
CNBC quoted the reaction from Goldman Sachs.
Other investor’s notes expressed similar views. Oppenheimer, for example, said that while the new services increased the appeal of the Apple ecosystem, they didn’t do so to any significant degree.
Apple also previewed an Arcade gaming subscription service but again for Fall availability with no pricing information…
The News service announced was as we had expected and is the only Service announced that is available immediately…
Finally, Apple offered no Services bundle to compel users to sign up now though this is still a possibility for the actual launch this fall…
Though all of these services are interesting from a platform churn point of view none seem likely on our calculations to materially impact EPS in the short term, with the possible exception of Apple Arcade pending pricing and service details…
Apple’s Services line remains dominated by App Store commissions and TAC revenue which, when combined, made up 51% of total 2018 services revenue and 70% of Services gross profits…
With small calculated impacts from these “Other services”, we expect the focus to return to the slowing iPhone business post this event…
JP Morgan also questioned the value proposition.
PED30 reports that Chatham Road Partners had similar concerns about Apple’s TV-related announcements.
Wells Fargo felt there were more questions than answers.
Citi was neutral, saying that it gave a welcome boost to Services but was unlikely to move the needle much in the short-term as consumers are slow to change their behavior. There was also a mixed view from Cowen.
Morgan Stanley is more bullish on a Services-driven future, however, raising its share price target from $197 to $220.
PiperJaffray increased its target from $187 to $201 on the same basis, but anticipating a more modest impact, while Seeking Alpha notes that Canaccord Genuity has raised its price target dramatically, from $185 to $230.
Wedbush was similarly optimistic, saying this is a 3-5 year play.
There seems little doubt that it all helps. More services means more recurring revenue, and more stickiness to the ecosystem. But ultimately Wall Street doesn’t think this changes concerns about iPhone sales.
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